Динамика на рынке коммерческой недвижимости в 2025 году
We are witnessing how the Russian commercial real estate market continues to operate under sanctions pressure and the high key interest rate of the Central Bank, which remains the main constraint on large transactions.
Despite this, market participants have successfully adapted to the new reality. According to experts from the consulting firm CMWP, the projected volume of investment transactions by the end of 2025 will reach approximately 350 billion rubles, indicating continued interest in the market despite the turbulence.
At the same time, an interesting dynamic is observed: the market for large transactions has slowed, while increased activity is observed in the small and medium-sized segment.
Key market development scenarios:
The increased activity of international players could lead to a recovery in demand due to foreign capital and the development of new niches;
The prevalence of isolation restrictions will create risks of increased operating costs, but will open opportunities to reduce barriers to growth for Russian companies.
The office segment is also experiencing significant changes. According to CMWP forecasts, demand in 2025 will be approximately 1.9 million square meters, below the record 2.24 million square meters in 2024. A high volume of new space is expected to be delivered – 730,000 square meters – but this will not have a significant impact on vacancy rates, as most space is consumed during the construction phase.
Key office market trends:
A shortage of quality space has led to a 15-20% annual increase in rental rates.
Vacancy rates have more than halved: for Class A offices, to 4.9%, and Class B, to 2.8%.
Office rents increase by 25-35% with three-year contract extensions.
40% of real estate transactions are purchases, 60% are leases.
Changing role of brokers.
This year, we've seen a significant transformation in the commercial real estate brokerage sector. Agents need to be multidisciplinary and keep their finger on the pulse of the market, driven by digitalization, a shortage of quality space, and changing client demands.
Deep Analytics and Consulting: A broker's job isn't to find premises, but to conduct a comprehensive market analysis, offer clients the most favorable terms, and forecast price trends. It's important to optimize clients' rental costs by assisting in renegotiating contracts or finding alternatives.
Expertise in Quality and Turnkey Solutions: Given the shortage of quality space, brokers must understand the specifics of finishing, engineering systems, and smart building standards to offer clients truly high-quality and modern spaces.
Legal and Financial Support: A broker becomes a key link in minimizing client risks. This includes due diligence on counterparties, legal support for complex transactions, and assistance with relocation.
Specialization and Personal Brand: Success increasingly depends on reputation and deep expertise in a specific segment (e.g., luxury real estate, offices, or logistics). The trust of wealthy clients and the ability to build long-term relationships are becoming more valuable than the number of completed transactions.
Retail Real Estate
The retail real estate market is demonstrating a trend toward increasing average leasable area of new properties. While the average leasable area of new shopping centers declined significantly in 2022, by 2024 it had risen to 12,400 square meters, with a forecast for 2025 of 13,800 square meters.
A development trend is the emergence of larger properties of 20,000-40,000 square meters, driven by the active development of Russian brands and the possible return of international players.
Spaces on the ground floors of residential buildings remain particularly popular, with virtually no vacancies thanks to the rapid occupancy of new residential complexes. Warehouse Segment
Warehouse real estate, which experienced a surge in demand in 2022-2023 amid the rapid growth of e-commerce, is expected to stabilize by 2025. Developers have responded to the increased demand, and a more balanced supply-demand balance is now observed. The Class A vacancy rate increased to 1.6% as of March 2025, but remains relatively low. Experts predict a further increase in vacancy rates to +1.3 percentage points amid a slight slowdown in demand. However, in some regions, particularly near major highways and industrial zones, a shortage of high-quality warehouse space remains.
Promising formats include light industrial and hotel businesses.
One of the most promising formats in 2025 is light industrial complexes – facilities ranging from 200 to 2,000 square meters that combine a warehouse, office, and often a showroom. This format is ideal for small and medium-sized businesses, reducing logistics and administrative costs by concentrating processes in one location. Another growing area is the hotel industry, particularly the apartment complex sector, which targets the middle class+ audience. The development of domestic tourism is stimulating developers' interest in creating hotels, especially in the central districts of Moscow and St. Petersburg. Investment Prospects and Risks: Despite the high key rate, investing in commercial real estate remains attractive. This is due to the limited availability of other effective and reliable investment instruments: investing in the Russian stock market is fraught with risks, and investing in foreign securities is difficult.
Comparative advantages of commercial real estate:
Potential yield of up to 20% versus 5% for residential real estate
Attractive resale potential – selling commercial space for 2-3 times its original price is easier than selling residential space
Inflation protection – property values increase significantly annually
Segment risks:
High taxes – can reach 2% of the cadastral value versus 0.1% for residential real estate
Increased utility bills
Dependent on location of yield
Drop during crises
In conclusion, the situation in Russia's commercial real estate sector in 2025 indicates a profound transformation, not a simple adaptation to a changing environment. While risks remain, the industry remains in demand among investors, increasingly focusing on the needs of small companies and generating integrated solutions that combine various functions. The main drivers of growth are a shortage of modern facilities, increased demands on professional consultants, and investors' need for reliable tools in an unstable environment. Consequently, the current challenging environment is not paralyzing the sector, but rather setting new development vectors, creating opportunities for players with deep knowledge and flexibility.
