The Moscow Region Warehouse Real Estate Market in Early 2026
The Moscow Region Warehouse Real Estate Market in Early 2026
Analysis by Ashtons International Realty: rental rates, key projects, demand structure, submarkets, and the investment appeal of the warehouse segment
Warehouse real estate in the Moscow region remains one of the most resilient and profitable segments of the commercial market in early 2026. Macroeconomic turbulence has not changed the fundamentals: there is still less quality space available than there are tenants looking for it. Demand outpaces supply — which means rental rates keep climbing, and investment transactions retain their liquidity. What is particularly interesting for the private investor in the premium segment: warehouses are becoming an increasingly sought-after asset class. A clear product. Predictable cash flow. And all of this against the backdrop of nervous equity and bond markets. Ashtons International Realty examines the key parameters of the market and the opportunities available to investors.
The Big Picture: Low Vacancy, Rising Rents
By our estimates, the total volume of quality warehouse supply (Class A and A+) in the Moscow region at the start of 2026 stands at approximately 27 million square metres. Vacancy in Class A is around 2% — a historic low. There is virtually no empty space left on the market. In Class B, the figure is higher, at 5-7%, but even this remains below pre-crisis averages.
The average Class A rental rate in early 2026 has reached 11,500 - 3,200 roubles per square metre per year, excluding VAT and operating expenses. Year-on-year growth amounts to 20-25%. In premium locations — the inner Moscow region, high-bay warehouses with large block areas, properties near major transport hubs — rates run as high as 15,000 roubles per square metre per year. Operating expenses (OpEx) add another 2,500-3,500 roubles per square metre per year on top of the base rate.
The capitalisation of warehouse assets in Q1 2026 sale transactions sits in the 9.5-11.5% range based on net operating income (net yield). That is well above what most European markets offer (4–6%), but noticeably below the peaks of 2023, when individual deals were closing at 13-14%. The compression in cap rates reflects growing interest from institutional capital and major private investors in the sector.
Demand Structure: Who Drives the Rental Market
Rental demand in 2026 is shaped by four major groups. The first is e-commerce and online marketplaces: Wildberries, Ozon, Yandex.Market, Lamoda, and their numerous fulfilment partners. Online retail accounts for roughly 34-38% of total leased volume, and that share continues to grow by 2-3 percentage points annually.
The second group is traditional retail. This includes grocery chains (X5 Group, Magnit, Lenta, Auchan), non-food retailers (M.Video, DNS, Leroy Merlin), and pharmaceutical distribution. This category accounts for about 28% of leased volume and operates on longer contracts of 7-10 years — which makes it a particularly attractive tenant base from an investment standpoint.
The third group consists of manufacturing companies and 3PL operators (logistics providers). Their share is around 22%. These tenants are highly sensitive to property specifications: ceiling height, column grid, dock door density, floor load capacity, the option to set up cross-docking. They are willing to pay a premium for quality — and they shape the upper end of the rental rate range.
The fourth group is small and medium-sized businesses. They used to occupy Class B and C warehouses, but in conditions of acute shortage, they are migrating into the quality segment. Their share is approaching 14% — a new structural feature of the 2025–2026 market.
Geography: Which Directions Lead the Market
The southern and northern parts of the Moscow region remain the principal warehouse corridors. The southern direction (the Kashirskoye, Simferopolskoye, and Ryazanskoye highways) has historically concentrated about 38% of all quality warehouse supply in the region. The reason is straightforward: geographic proximity to the main freight routes heading into Russia's regions, combined with available land for development. This is where the major fulfilment hubs of online marketplaces and the regional distribution centres of major retailers are located.
The northern direction (the Leningradskoye and Dmitrovskoye highways) accounts for roughly 24% of supply. It serves the northern part of Moscow and the regions of Russia's North-West. The eastern direction (the Gorkovskoye, Nosovikhinskoye, and Noginskoye highways) holds about 18%. The western direction (the Minskoye and Mozhayskoye highways) — around 12%. The south-western and north-western sectors together — 8%. This geography has been remarkably stable for several years.
It is worth noting that 2025–2026 saw a marked rise in interest in locations along the CKAD ring road. The new ring motorway has dramatically improved connectivity between the various Moscow region directions and expanded the economically attractive zone for development. Major warehouse complexes are increasingly being built precisely at the intersections of CKAD with the radial highways — and such properties command a premium of 10-15% over the market average.
New Supply: Constraints and Structural Shortage
Demand keeps growing, but new construction cannot keep pace. In 2025, approximately 1.7 million square metres of quality warehouse space were delivered, while net demand growth came in at around 2.0 million. For 2026, around 2.1 million square metres of new warehouses are scheduled for completion — once again below the expected demand growth of 2.3-2.5 million.
Where do these constraints come from? Construction has become more expensive (materials, labour, utility connections), money costs developers a great deal, and securing land in the inner Moscow region is no easy matter. Against this backdrop, the BTS (build-to-suit) model has become dominant: a developer builds a warehouse for a specific tenant under a signed long-term contract — eliminating vacancy risk.
The BTS share in new construction in 2026 stands at around 55%. That is several times higher than five years ago. Speculative construction (without a pre-committed tenant) accounts for about 45% of volume, but even here developers are increasingly signing lease agreements before construction is complete. Warehouses that remain vacant at the moment of delivery are practically nonexistent on the market.
Investment Transactions: The Market That Has Taken Shape
Investment transaction volume in warehouse real estate in the Moscow region exceeded 250 billion roubles in 2025 — a historic high. For 2026, we expect at least 200 billion. The principal buyers are institutional funds (closed-end mutual investment funds, ZPIFs), family offices, and major private investors. The classic profile of such an investor involves a 5-10 year holding horizon and a rental income stream with gradual indexation.
The minimum size of an investment transaction in the quality segment is around 1 billion roubles (a smaller warehouse of 7-10 thousand square metres). The average ticket size in 2025-2026 ranges from 5 to 8 billion roubles. The largest deals reach 20-40 billion roubles — these are portfolio investments in complexes of 3 to 5 properties at once. Ashtons supports clients across this entire range: from the acquisition of a single Class A building of 8-10 thousand square metres to the formation of a diversified warehouse portfolio worth 3-5 billion roubles.
Warehouse Real Estate as an Asset Class for the Private Investor
Why is the warehouse segment such an attractive addition to a private investor's portfolio in the premium segment? There are several reasons.
First, predictable cash flow. Warehouse lease contracts are typically signed for 5-10 years with indexation tied to CPI or a fixed percentage. This provides a stable rouble-denominated income stream comparable to corporate bonds — but with a noticeably higher gross yield.
Second, an inflation hedge. Warehouse rental rates are indexed annually, unlike the fixed coupon of bonds, which inflation steadily erodes. The capital value of the asset also tends to rise alongside construction costs and rental rates across the sector.
Third, diversification away from public markets. Warehouse real estate is weakly correlated with the dynamics of equities and bonds, which reduces overall portfolio volatility. For clients who treat real estate as an independent asset class rather than a mere supplement to financial instruments, warehouses become an essential component.
There are limitations, of course. Liquidity is low — selling a warehouse asset takes anywhere from 4 to 12 months. A management company is required for day-to-day operations. Specific tax and corporate matters arise — VAT, property tax, the conduct of operations. All of this can be addressed by working with a professional agency and competent legal counsel.
What Defines a Quality Warehouse: Things to Watch For
What makes a warehouse a quality asset? For an investor approaching the sector for the first time, it helps to understand the basic parameters. Ceiling height is a key characteristic: a modern Class A warehouse requires a minimum of 12 metres of clear height, while premium properties offer 14-16 metres. Column grid — 12 by 24 metres or larger. Floor load capacity — no less than 7 tonnes per square metre. Dock doors — one for every 800–1,000 square metres of warehouse area. Quality office space (a mezzanine with offices) — 7-12% of total area.
Less visible parameters matter just as much: the quality of the fire suppression system (sprinklers, ESFR), the specifications of heating and ventilation, backup power supply, the quality of access roads and manoeuvring space for heavy vehicles, security, and access control systems. All of this taken together determines whether a warehouse will appeal to a Class A tenant — and at what rate that tenant will be willing to sign.
Risks and Limitations: What an Investor Should Consider
The principal risk of warehouse real estate is concentration risk. Most warehouses are leased to one or two large tenants, and the departure of one of them leaves a significant share of space empty while a replacement is found. In 2025 -2026, the probability of such a scenario is reduced by the overall structure of the market, with its very low vacancy — but over a longer horizon, an investor must be prepared for this.
The second risk is location. Not every location offers equal liquidity. A warehouse situated "off the path" of the main logistics flows can trade at a substantial discount and sit on the market for a long time before finding a buyer. Professional location assessment is a mandatory step in preparing any investment decision.
The third risk is operational. Running a warehouse to a high standard requires specialised expertise: technical maintenance of mechanical and engineering systems, handling tenant relations and contractual matters, indexing rental rates, managing operating costs. Investors who are not prepared to immerse themselves in all this transfer the property to a specialised management company.
Forecast for the Market Through the End of 2026
Our forecast for the Moscow region warehouse market through the end of 2026: continued rental rate growth of 10–15% over the year, with vacancy holding at minimal levels. Investment transaction volume will moderate somewhat from the record 2025 figure but remain high. Cap rates may compress by another 50 -80 basis points, provided the cost of money in the broader economy stabilises.
Over the medium term (2027-2028), we expect the market to gradually move toward equilibrium: new construction will catch up with demand, rates will stabilise, and the market will return to a normal regime in which rental rates rise in line with inflation. The period of structural shortage that defined 2023-2026 will gradually come to an end.
The Role of Ashtons International Realty in the Warehouse Market
Ashtons International Realty supports premium-segment clients in warehouse real estate transactions at every stage: investment analysis of a prospective property, tax and legal due diligence, price and terms negotiations, deal structuring, financing arrangements (where necessary), the handover of the asset, and subsequent management. Our team has worked with properties valued from 1 to 50 billion roubles and partners with the leading management companies in the market.
For clients considering warehouse real estate for the first time, we provide introductory consultations that include an analysis of how this asset class fits within their broader investment portfolio. For experienced investors, we conduct targeted searches for properties matching specified parameters and help structure portfolios composed of several complementary assets.
To sum up: warehouse real estate in the Moscow region in 2026 is a mature, liquid, and investment-attractive segment that deserves the attention of every serious investor. Ashtons International Realty would be glad to become your partner in working with this asset class and to provide professional support at every stage.
